An Analysis Of The Russian-Ukrainian War On The Relationship Between Russia And Its Nato Allies
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
- Background of the study
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have been evident since Ukraine’s independence in 1991. (Orest,2009). Ukraine has remained one of Russia’s most powerful satellite republics since then, heavily influenced by Russian politicians, oligarchs, and corporations (Orest ,2009). Following independence, the Ukrainian government engaged in widespread corruption, failing to represent the interests of its citizens (Ilko ,2018). The Orange Revolution in Kyiv (2004-2005) was a protest against Russian meddling in Ukraine’s constitutionally independent politics, and it signaled the country’s determination to institutionalize democracy (Brian ,2020). Despite this, Ukrainian society remains ethnically, religiously, and linguistically divided, with certain provinces, such as Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as the Crimean Peninsula, firmly identifying as Russian (Orest,2009). Russian military involvement in Crimea sparked international outrage in 2014.
conflict between the two countries (Rowland, 2014). A study of these societal divides and the diverse interests of domestic players in Ukraine and Russia will guide the investigation of potential conflict resolutions. Furthermore, the interests of external international actors such as the European Union, the United States, and the United Nations highlight the difficulties in resolving the issue as a result of Vladimyr Putin’s unyielding neo-imperial foreign policy (Hromadske, 2019). Because of Ukraine’s strategically important geopolitical location and the deterioration of human rights on Ukrainian territory, third-party intervention and international action will be justified (Peter, 2021).
Ukraine is a young country. However, after decades of division between Poland and Muscovy, as well as Soviet administration, it was granted independence. In 1991, the country gained independence. It is divided by ethnicity (majority Ukrainians, minority Russians), language (Russian and Ukrainian), and religion (or divisions between the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate and the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyivan Patriarchate) (Olzacka, 2017). Furthermore, as a result of these long-standing splits, the Ukrainian sense of identity is still forming, exacerbating the dilemma (Orest, 2009). Ukraine’s most recent official census was in 2001, so the data on its demographics is quite old. It does, however, provide the necessary approximation to comprehend this struggle. According to 2001 data, there were 77.8% Ukrainians and 17.3% Russians (Central Intelligence Agency, 2001). Furthermore, 67.5 percent of Ukrainians spoke Ukrainian as their first language. whereas 29.6 percent spoke Russian as their first language (Central Intelligence Agency, 2001). According to Lakomy (2021), “Ukraine has been an area of rising contrasts and tensions, partially inherited from difficult historical processes and partly formed throughout the post-Cold War period.” It has become a nation riven by competing interests and long-standing divides. “As a result of Ukraine’s reliance on the Soviet Union and, more recently, the Russian Federation, several challenges have arisen, complicating relations between Russia and Ukraine” (Yuriy, 2020). While the Russian Empire controlled virtually all of Ukraine, one significant entity had a significant impact on the ongoing fighting in the Luhansk and Donetsk areas, and that entity was Novorossiya (“New Russia”) (Yuriy, 2020). Novorossiya’s historical territory extends from Odesa to Donetsk, then to Dnepropetrovsk. Since then, Russia’s sense of identity in these sectors has grown (Orest, 2009). As a result, Russia asserted that the historical territory should be administered by them. Ukraine’s long reliance on the Soviet Union and Russia exacerbated ethnic and linguistic disparities, preventing Ukrainians from developing a strong sense of national identity (Orest, 2009). Nonetheless, even after its legal declaration of independence, Ukraine’s status as a post-Soviet satellite state exacerbated competing views on whether it should lean more towards the West (the European Union) or the East (Russia) (the Russian Federation). Nonetheless, many Ukrainians sought to forge their own sense of Ukrainian identity, particularly after the country’s independence in 1991. Russian influences can be found in both the west and the east. As stated by (Orest, 2009), proponents of an independent Ukraine have repeatedly raised concerns about Russia’s efforts to tighten its grip on the Ukrainian government. Such was the case in 2004, when the Orange Revolution erupted in Ukraine as a result of rigged presidential elections (Karatnycky, 2015). For years, Ukrainians have been deprived of basic necessities such as food, healthcare, and safety due to Russia’s autocratic and oligarchical dominance (Karatnycky, 2015). Following the election of a pro-Russian candidate, Victor Yanukovych, supporters of a pro-European candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, staged a series of rallies in Kyiv’s Independence Square and other major cities. The Ukrainians had obviously had enough. of being dependent on Russia (Gerard, 2020). The European Union’s mediation mission, led by former Polish President Aleksander Kwaniewski, was successful in establishing grounds for resolving the conflict within Ukraine (Gerard, 2020). However, as Zwolski (2018) points out, the Russians interpreted it as an attempt by Poland to distance itself from Russia by removing Russia’s influence from Ukraine. The dispute was settled by Ukraine’s Supreme Court, which declared that the elections were rigged and thus invalidated the Central Election Commission’s results. Yushchenko was elected president with the goal of reducing Russian influence in Ukraine and ending oligarchical influence on the government and its policies (Gerard, 2020). Despite Ukrainians’ high hopes, Yushchenko fell short of his stated goals. Ukraine remained under Russian rule, with oligarchical influence over a corrupt government (Gerard, 2020). The European Union, which was skeptical of Ukraine’s European ambitions, was intrigued by the Polish effort and attempts to bind Ukraine closer to Western Europe, or perhaps to break off Russo-Ukrainian ties (Zwolski, 2018). The Eastern Partnership project was launched in 2008 by Radosaw Sikorski of Poland and Carl Bildt of Sweden with the goal of bringing Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Belarus closer to the European Union. Despite strong opposition, the European Commission (EC) agreed to implement the plan (Zwolski, 2018). It was made possible by Russia’s growing threat during its military intervention in Georgia in 2008, as well as the election of a more sympathetic to Eastern issues French President. Nicolas Sarkozy, as well as Western European countries’ recognition that they needed Eastern European support to form the Mediterranean Union (Zwolski, 2018,). The European Union and Ukraine attempted to negotiate an Association Agreement that would assist Ukraine in institutionalizing democracy. Everything appeared to be in place for the transaction to be completed in November 2013, but when Ukraine’s growing ties with Western Europe unexpectedly deteriorated, the Ukrainian government chose to focus on Russo-Ukraine collaboration. As a result, the vast majority of Ukrainians, particularly those living in the country’s western regions, were extremely dissatisfied (Peter, 2021). The re-adoption of the 2004 constitution, which limited the president’s authority, was one of the demands, but revolutionaries’ dislike for President Yanukovych led to its rejection. His resignation was accepted. Euromaidan, on the other hand, was the name given to a series of protests against Yanukovych and his decision to abandon the Eastern Partnership in favor of a Russian proposal for a better economic partnership. It bears some resemblance to the 2004 Orange Revolution, but only to a point (Peter, 2021). While some hoped that the Orange Revolution would improve the situation in Ukraine, Euromaidan is seen as the direct cause of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine (Sperling, 2022). The current conflict arose as a result of Putin’s decision to invade Crimea in March 2014, which was followed by pro-Russian protests in the Donbass region (Sperling, 2022).
- Statement of the problem
Conflict between countries has long been regarded as one of the most serious challenges to the effectiveness of international organizations. This conflict manifests itself in various forms, including cold war and violence warfare. This is evident in the recent events between Russia and Ukraine, which have raised many concerns among all international actors. In a terrifying act of violence, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a military attack on Ukraine in the early hours of February 24, 2022. This war between the two countries prompted many Western officials to issue warnings, which did nothing to soften the blow (Reliefweb, 2022). To ratchet up the tensions in this war, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised a “special military operation” to demilitarize the country. and “denazify” Ukraine, as well as a veiled threat of nuclear attacks on any foreign force that might come to its aid (Sperling, 2022). Residents of Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, and towns across the country awoke to the sound of explosions as Russian bombers and missiles attacked military and infrastructure targets (Sperling, 2022). The attack follows a months-long buildup of up to 200,000 Russian troops on Ukraine’s northern, western, and southern borders (Reliefweb, 2022). The presence of ground troops in Ukraine suggests that Russia has launched a full-fledged invasion rather than just an air campaign aimed at destabilizing Ukraine’s government (Reliefweb, 2022). The human toll could be enormous. This demonstrates that Moscow has been preparing for the latest phase of the battle since at least at the very least, spring 2021 (Reliefweb, 2022). Frustrated with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who was elected on a platform of peace but has failed to implement the Minsk agreements on Russia’s terms, Moscow stationed what appeared to be the beginnings of an invading force near Ukraine’s border (Brian, 2020). It then withdrew a large number of soldiers while leaving infrastructure in place. A second build-up began in the fall of 2021, this time with more troops and deployments on additional fronts, including Belarus in the north and Crimea in the south (Kriesberg, 2021). The deployments sparked a diplomatic frenzy to avoid conflict. Western governments launched a two-pronged diplomatic campaign, threatening new aggression in Ukraine with severe economic sanctions.
as well as a buildup of NATO forces near Russia’s borders, and that if Russian forces withdraw, Western governments would be willing to negotiate new limits on European activities, exercises, and deployments (Kriesberg, 2021). Moscow responded with its own demands, claiming that the West was exaggerating the situation “hysterically” (Kriesberg, 2021). She wanted NATO and the US to sign binding treaties promising not to expand the alliance further, particularly to former Soviet countries; to withdraw all military forces from countries that were already NATO members when the Soviet Union fell apart; and to avoid intermediate-range missile and nuclear weapon deployments in Europe (Kriesberg, 2021). In light of this, the researcher will look into the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Russia’s NATO partners.
The goal of the research
The study’s overarching goal is to examine the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Russia’s relations with its NATO allies. The study will specifically work toward the following goals:
To determine whether Russia’s war on Ukraine is motivated by Ukraine’s alleged intention to join NATO.
To assess the war’s impact on Russia’s relations with its NATO allies.
To look into NATO’s possible influence or support for the Ukraine side in Russia’s NATO membership.
Hypotheses for research
For the study, the following hypotheses have been developed:
HO: Russia’s NATO membership will not be affected by NATO’s possible influence or support for the Ukraine side.
HA: NATO’s potential influence or support for the Ukraine side
Russia’s NATO membership will be impacted.
The significance of the research
This research will look at the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on Russia’s relations with its NATO allies. As a result, the study will be important in the following ways:
Government: This study will be important to the Nigerian government because it will learn something or two from the Russian-Ukrainian war while also attempting to boost and grow its economy in order to be recognized and have a vantage position in the international political sphere.
Academia: The study will benefit the academic community by adding to the existing literature on the Russian-Ukraine war.
The study’s scope
This study will look into whether Ukraine’s purported intention to join NATO is true.
The reason for Russia’s war on Ukraine. The study will also assess the war’s impact on Russia’s relations with its NATO allies. Finally, the study will look into NATO’s possible influence or support for Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Study limitations
A number of factors hampered this study, which are as follows:
As with any other research, there are challenges, such as a lack of accurate materials on the topic under study and an inability to obtain data.
The researcher faced financial constraints in obtaining relevant materials as well as printing and collating questionnaires.
Time constraint: Another constraint is the need to shuttle between writing the research and engaging in other academic work, which makes it difficult.
The researcher is uneasy.
1.8 Methodology of Research
Research methodology is concerned with the various methods or approaches used by the researcher to carry out the research, as well as the instrument used to collect data. There are several research methodologies that can be used to answer the research questions. The historical research methodology will be used in this study to collect data and relevant information, and the study will use a descriptive data collection method. This will entail gathering information from secondary sources such as books, journal articles, magazines, internet sources, international and national conference proceedings, published and unpublished articles, and so on.
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