ANALYSIS OF CYBER INCIDENTS BETWEEN DYADIC RIVALS
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
As the world becomes more reliant on internet, authorities must address how to avoid and respond to cyber incidents, employing both offensive and defensive strategies. The employment of cyber operations as part of a state’s military strategy is growing, particularly among dyadic adversaries. As the cyber world emerges as the next anarchic frontier, states are developing offensive and defensive capabilities to protect their rising reliance on cyber for infrastructure creation, advancement and upkeep.
There are several examples of state-on-state cyber incidents involving distributed denial of service (DDoS), intrusions, sabotage, website defacement, Trojan horses, worms, and viruses, including the use of the Stuxnet worm, cyberespionage by China, and numerous cyber incidents ascribed to Russia. It is worth noting that the overall trend has been for cyber events to serve as an annoyance rather than a significant threat to their opponent.
Cyber operations as a military strategy are becoming increasingly popular among states since they are very affordable, can be deployed fast, and allow attackers to stay anonymous. Anonymity is essential if you want to acquire intelligence and strike your adversary without escalation. Some experts believe the risks associated with cyber operations are minor, but depending on the severity of the operation, they can have major consequences, including increased escalation or retribution against the attacking state.
Although there is a large body of research on cyber conflict and cyber incidents, there is very little quantitative analysis to support the theories or to assist in predicting future use of cyber operations. This thesis seeks to answer what has caused cyber incidents between dyadic rivals in the past in the hopes to better analyze and predict future cyber incidents. A better analysis is needed for a state to develop their cyber capacity and regulations properly. A better understanding will also assist states to address legal issues when cyber incidents occur between each other.
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