TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ON EGGS PRODUCTION IN TWO SELECTED POULTRY FARM IN AKWA IBOM STATE
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ABSTRACT
This research work considered the use of time series analysis method to analyze the chicken egg production in Vika limited farm in Uyo and Semek Gallus farm in Essien Udim. To achieve the objective, the data of chicken egg production were obtained from Vika limited farm and Semek Gallus farm for the period of one year which was collected daily. Consists all chicken eggs produced in Vika limited Farm and Semek Gallus Farm which there produce up to 1,281,884 chicken eggs yearly. The number of chicken eggs produced in Vika Limited Farm and Semek Gallus farm for the period of one (1) year, researcher employed the judgmental sampling technique to extract the data of chicken eggs produced for period of one (1) year census. In the analysis integrated moving average of order one was found to be appropriate model for the series after critical examination of auto correlation an partial auto correlation function of the series; ARIMA (0,1,2) model was found adequate to represent the data after series. Poultry farmers should be advised on ways to maintain their farm for maximizing profit.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Contents Pages
Cover page
Title Page — — — — — — — — — — i
Declaration — — — — — — — — — — ii
Certification — — — — — — — — — — iii
Dedication — — — — — — — — — — iv
Acknowledgement — — — — — — — — — v
Abstract — — — — — — — — — — vi
Table of Contents — — — — — — — — — vii
CHAPTER ONE: GENERAL INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study — — — — — — — 1
1.2 Purpose of the Study — — — — — — — — 3
1.3 Statement of the Problem — — — — — — — 3
1.4 Statement of Hypothesis — — — — — — — 4
1.4 Significance of the Study — — — — — — — 4
1.5 Scope of the Study — — — — — — — — 4
1.6 Definition of Terms — — — — — — — — 4
CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.0 Introduction — — — — — — — — 6
2.1 Theoretical Framework — — — — — — 7
2.2 Summary of the Literature Review — — — — — — 9
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARSCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
3.0 Introduction — — — — — — — — — 11
3.1 Design of the Survey — — — — — — — — 11
3.2 Population of the Study — — — — — — — 11
3.3 Sampling Technique — — — — — — — — 11
3.4 Data Collection — — — — — — — — 11
3.5 Data Analysis Techniques and Presentation — — — — — 12
3.6 Data Preparation — — — — — — — — 15
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION
4.0 Introduction — — — — — — — — — 16
4.1 Data Presentation — — — — — — — — 16
4.2 Data Analysis — — — — — — — — — 16
4.3 Interpretation Of Results — — — — — — — 18
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION
5.0 Introduction — — — — — — — — — 19
5.1 Discussion — — — — — — — — — 19
5.2 Conclusion — — — — — — — — — 19
5.3 Recommendation — — — — — — — — 20
References
Appendices
CHAPTER ONE
GENERAL INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the Study
Chicken egg is important in many branches of the modern industries. Chicken eggs are common food one of the most commonly used in cooking, baking and production of other things. Chicken eggs consist of a protective egg shell, albumen (egg white) and vitellus (egg yolk), contained within venous thin membranes. Normally the shape of an egg resembles a prorate spheroid with one and larger than the other with cylindrical symmetry along the long axis. Chicken eggs are graded according to the size of this air cell measure during candling; this provides a way of testing the age of an egg, as the air cell increases in size, the egg becomes less dense and the larger end of the egg will rise to increasingly shallower depths when the egg is placed in a bowel of water. As every old egg will actually float in the water and should not be eaten.
The egg shell colour is caused by pigment deposition during egg formation in the oviduct and can vary according to species and breed, from the more common white or brown to pink or speckled blue-green. Generally, chicken breed with white ear lobes laid white eggs while chicken with red ear lobes laid brown eggs.
The chicken egg white is the common name for the dear liquid (which can also be called albumen) contained within an egg. In chicken egg, it is formed from the larger of secretion of the anterior section of hen’s oviduct during the passage of the egg. It from around either fertilized or unfertilized yolks.
The primary natural purpose of egg white is to protect the yolk and provides additional nutrition for the growth of the embryo. Chicken egg white consists about 90% water into which is dissolved 10% proteins. Unlike the yolk, which is high in lipids (flats), egg white contains no fat, and the carbohydrate content is less than 1%. Chicken egg white has many uses in food and many other. The chicken egg yolk in a newly laid egg is round and firm.
Yolk colour depends on the diet of the hen, if the diet contains yellow/orange plant pigments known as xanthophylls, then they are deposited in the yolk, colouring it. The chicken egg most after consumed by humans in a wide margin. An egg stores significant amounts of protein and other nutrient. Chicken egg has the following Nutritional values; per 100g (3.5g). Energy- 64kj (155kcal), Carbohydrate- 1.12g, Fat- 10.6g, Protein- 12.6g, Water- 12%, Cholesterol- 424mg, Phosphorur-25%, Magnesium- 3%, Vitamins- 43%, Shell- 12%, Iron- 9%, Calcium- 5%, Zinc- 11%, Potassium- 3%, etc.
Ground egg shells are sometimes used as a food additive to deliver calcium. Every part of an egg is edible, although the egg shell is generally discarded. Some recipes call for harvested after the hen is slaughtered or cooked while still inside the chicken. Vika Limited farm and Semek Gallus farm, chicken eggs are stored in a normal room temperature using egg create and the cracked eggs are optioned out within 24 hours and are stored in a different hall (store). The simplest method to preserve an egg is to treat it with salt. Salt draw water out of the egg and prevent bacteria and moulds from growing in egg.
Vika limited farm and Semek Gallus farm are the two largest farms that produce up to 5123 chicken eggs. Eggs are laid by female animals of many different species, including Birds, Reptiles and fishes and have been eaten by humans, for thousands of years. It is against this backup that this research is based to carry out time series analysis on eggs production by these two farms in Akwa Ibom State.
1.2 Purpose of the Study
The main purpose of this study was to carry time series analysis on eggs production in two selected poultry forms in Akwa Ibom State. Specifically the purposes of this study were:
- To obtain the time series plot of the chicken egg data and examine whether it is increasing or decreasing in Vika Limited Farm.
- To obtain the time series plot of the chicken egg data and examine whether it is increasing or decreasing in Semek Gallus Farm.
- Comparison of chicken egg data in Vika Limited Farm and chicken egg data in Semek Gallus Farm are similar.
1.3 Statement of the Problem
- To fit the model of chicken eggs production in Vika Limited Farm and Semek Gallus farm.
- To test Autocorrelation function (ACF) charts in Vika Limited Form and Semek Gallus farm.
- To test the non-stationary using the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) charts in Vika Limited Farm and Semek Gallus Farm.
- To determine whether the Autocorrelation function (ACF) and partial Autocorrelation function (PACF) are above the critical limit.
- The PCF (along with PACF) are used to determine the moving average process.
1.4 Statement of Hypothesis
The following null hypothesis were formulating to be tested at 0.05 level of significance.
H0: There is no significance difference on eggs production in Vika Limited Farm.
H0: There is no significance difference on eggs production in Semek Gallus Farm.
1.5 Significance of the Study
The findings of this study would help the Government to come up with strategic framework aim at increasing chicken egg production.
The findings of this study would also help the poultry farmers to minimize expenditure and increase profit.
This finding will serve as a reference material to any researcher wishing to research in this area of knowledge.
1.6 Scope of the Study
The area of the research was only base on Vika Limited Farm, Uyo Local Government Area and Semek Gallus Farm, Essien Udim Government Area, Akwa Ibom State, and all the data collected was a secondary data for the period of one (1) Year, that is 365 data point and the data collected was kept for feature use.
1.7 Definition of Terms
Time Series: – This time series is a set of recorded observations taken at specified, usually, equal time intervals. The time interval may be hour, period, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, seasonal and yearly.
Stochastic process: – Is a collection of random variable which is ordered in time.
Auto-Correlation Coefficient: – It measures the correlation between observations at differences apart.
Stationary Time Series: – Is a series in which its statistical properties of the process do not change over time (I.e. constant with time), that is there is no systematic change in mean (no trend), variance and if strictly period variation have been removed.
Component of the Time series:- It is the fluctuations as classified by days, weeks, months, and years which are caused due to some extraneous mechanisms that are constantly at work. These mechanisms as in the time series are four, namely, trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular variation.
Moving Average Process: – It described a stochastic process ( ) that can be described by a weighted sum of a white noise error and the white noise error from previous period.
Partial Autocorrelation Function: – It plays an autoregressive model.
Correlalogram: – Is a time series chart which helps in interpreting a set of auto correlation co –efficient, also it is good in the suggestion of an appropriate model suitable for a stationary series.